Trouble ahead for crop sensor mirrorless interchangeable lens cameras ? 1 May 2020

In the early days of digital photography most cameras were fixed lens types with very small sensors relative to the standard 35mm film size (43mm diagonal) of the preceding era.

When digital single lens reflex (DSLR) cameras were introduced at the turn of the century most used a crop sensor with a diagonal of 27mm (Canon) or 28mm (Sony) due to the prohibitive cost of 43mm sensors at the time.

Some DSLRs, mainly Olympus with a few models from Panasonic, used the even smaller 21.6mm Four Thirds sensor.

The first digital mirrorless interchangeable lens camera (MILC) system was Micro Four Thirds (MFT) in 2008, using the same 21.6mm sensor size.

The main selling point of the MFT system was that bodies and lenses were smaller and lighter than the popular 27-28mm sensor DSLRs at the time.

Something which I have not understood to this day is why Olympus and Panasonic did not elect to use the 28mm sensor size in 2008.  Had they done so the resulting bodies and some of the lenses would still have been significantly smaller than APSC DSLRs without  loss of image quality, a problem which affected MFT for several years and some would argue still does.

Pentax used a tiny 7.67mm sensor on its original Pentax Q in 2011, upgraded in later models to a 9.3mm sensor.  This concept did not find many takers and was soon abandoned.

Nikon tried using the 15.9mm (“one inch”) in its line of Nikon1 models from 2011 but this venture also failed because that sensor size lends itself much better to fixed lens zoom models.

Digital camera sales peaked around 2010 then started to decline when smartphones made most compact cameras irrelevant.

The downward trend continued and even before Covid-19,  interchangeable lens models also lost ground. 

Now the whole industry is in crisis. If camera makers want to survive they will need to restructure to cut costs and stabilise output at much lower levels than was previously considered normal.

So that is an industry perspective.

What about the consumer’s perspective ?

I was an early adopter and proponent of the MFT system and stuck with it for over ten years.

But for my interchangeable lens models I have moved to cameras which use the 43mm sensor (so called “full frame”).

Over the years crop sensor bodies and lenses have become larger and more expensive while 43mm sensor bodies and lenses have become smaller and relatively less expensive.

Consider the following two examples:

1.   An enthusiast consumer kit.

Here I compare a Micro Four Thirds body/lens combination to a Full Frame one. I chose these models to be approximately comparable in terms of imaging capability and focal length range.  Both bodies are the same size give or take a few millimeters.

The 43mm sensor in the Canon has 4x the area of the MFT sensor in the Lumix.

The lenses have a slightly different effective focal length range.

Prices are highly variable at present so I used the price advertised on one vendor’s website on the day of compiling this post.

The MFT kit is a Panasonic Lumix G95 with Pana-Leica 12-60mm f2.8-4 lens.

This costs $2277 and weighs 804 grams. The lens has a full frame equivalent aperture range of f5.6-f8.

The full frame kit is a Canon EOS RP with Canon RF 24-105mm f4-f7.1 lens.  

This costs $2498 and weighs 880 grams. This kit is intermittently available at a considerable discount. I paid $2080.

So the 43mm kit costs about the same, is very close to the same size and weight, the lens has a greater equivalent aperture (smaller equivalent f number) and the sensor has four times the area.

2. A mid range enthusiast/prosumer kit.

This time I compare a Fujifilm X-T4 with 28mm sensor (APSC) and 16-55mm constant f2.8 lens to a full frame Canon EOS R with RF 24-105mm constant f4 lens.

The Fuji kit costs $4428 and weighs  1181 grams.

The Canon kit costs $4448 and weighs 1360 grams.

Both kits are a similar size, weight and price.

The Canon lens has a bit more zoom range but both have the same equivalent aperture of f4.

The Canon sensor has 2.35 times the area of the Fuji sensor.

So from a consumer’s perspective the argument for full frame mirrorless is getting stronger and the case for a crop sensor approach is getting weaker.

But wait, there’s more.

Canon, Nikon, Panasonic and Sony are each advertising expansion of their full frame catalogue with much less commitment to ongoing support for their crop sensor bodies and lenses.

The photo at the top of this post is of a Snappy Gum tree in Western Australia which characteristically divests itself of branches in dry conditions then grows new branches after rain.

The camera industry is a bit like this tree in a very severe drought. It will have to drop branches to protect the core or die altogether.

So what camera products are the branches and which are the core ?

Compacts are a branch, they will go with a few high price specialty models remaining.

Most bridge cameras are a branch too although there are some compelling reasons why many consumers would be better served by a high grade bridge camera than just about any other device which can make pictures.

I think all crop sensor interchangeable lens models are branches which will be pruned drastically or dropped off altogether.

Canon and Nikon will stop making most DSLR bodies and lenses soon, leaving just the high end sports models in place until they can make a mirrorless equivalent.

The core for Canon , Nikon, Panasonic and Sony is 43mm mirrorless interchangeable lens models.

My guess, bet, call it what you will is that Canon and Sony will come through in reasonable shape but with a trimmed catalogue and much reduced output.

Nikon has a strong attached user base and should survive if it can deliver products which enthusiasts and professionals enjoy using.

Panasonic is looking vulnerable. It needs to find products to entice users away from SoCaNik into full frame. This has not really happened yet and time is running out.

This leaves Olympus, Leica, Fujifilm and Ricoh/Pentax.

Olympus has elected to stay with MFT. Their top tier models cost more than many full frame cameras. I think their camera business will struggle to survive.

Leica buyers don’t care about anything except Leica and are not price sensitive so they will probably continue with business as usual.

The Pentax part of Ricoh/Pentax is in the process of becoming quietly extinct. Which is sad for me because my very first “proper” camera was a Pentax Spotmatic and I still have one of these in the cupboard.

Ricoh might survive making niche photographic products, or not if someone in head office says “Please explain why are you doing this ?”

At a guess I think Fujifilm will do modestly well making products which are “different” for buyers who like that idea and who want a camera to have a “soul” and “character”. 

A bit like  people who buy a Morgan sports car with a wooden frame.

I have placed my bet on Canon RF mount bodies and lenses. We will see how that goes.